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( A CASE STUDY OF UPTH, RIVERS STATE 2011-2017)
ABSTRACT
Infant mortality rate has continued to be a great challenge to both developed and undeveloped notions, of which Nigeria is not excluded. This project is set to deal with the time series analysis of common infant mortality rate a case study of University of Port-Harcourt Teaching Hospital, [UPTH) in RIVERS STATE over the past six years. The analysis was applied to data obtained from University of Port-Harcourt Teaching Hospital, [UPTH) in RIVERS STATE, time series model was built from the data using regression analysis from the model, the analysis applied on the data obtained were moving average least square method, and forecasting, We are able to forecast future infant mortality rate in Rivers State. This will help the health authorities predict and control future of infant mortality rate, which is the primary purpose of this project for effective planning. The time series model was built using regression line Y = 79.1 + 1.3(x). The equation enable us to forecast the future of infant mortality rate in Rivers State for 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 respectively. Recommendations were made in the project work on how infant mortality could be reduced.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TITLE PAGE – – – – – – – – – i
DECLARATION – – – – – – – – – ii
CERTIFICATION – – – – – – – – – iii
DEDICATION – – – – – – – – – iv
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT – – – – – – – – v
ABSTRACT – – – – – – – – – – vii
TABLE OF CONTENTS – – – – – – – – viii
LIST OF TABLES – – – – – – – – – x
LIST OF FIGURES – – – – – – – – xi
CHAPTER ONE
1.0 INTRODUCTION – – – – – – – – 1
1.1 BACKGROUND OF STUDY – – – – – – 2
1.2 PURPOSE OF STUDY – – – – – – – 4
1.3 STATEMENT OF PROBLEM – – – – – – 5
1.4 SOURCE OF DATA – – – – – – – 5
1.5 SIGNIFICANCE OF STUDY – – – – – – 6
1.6 SCOPE OF THE STUDY – – – – – – – 6
1.7 LIMITATION OF STUDY – – – – – – 7
1.8 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY – – – – – 7
1.9 AIMS OF THE STUDY – – – – – – 8
1.2.1 TEST OF NORMALITY – – – – – – 8
CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW
INTRODUCTION – – – – – – – – – 9
CHAPTER THREE
METHODOLOGY AND DATA ANALYSIS
3.1 INTRODUCTION – – – – – – – 13
3.2 SOURCES OF DATA – – – – – – 13
3.3 DATA PRESENTATION – – – – – – 13
3.3.1 METHOD OF DATA ANALYSIS – – – – 21
3.3.2 THE MOVING AVERAGE METHOD – – – – 25
3.3.3 LEAST SQUARES METHOD – – – – – 30
3.6.2 PREDICTION AND FORECASTING – – – – 33
CHAPTER FOUR
FINDING, INTERPRETATION AND RESULT
4.0 INTRODUCTION – – – – – – – 40
4.1.0 LEAST SQUARE METHOD – – – – – 40
4.1.1 PREDICTION OF INFANT MORTALITY RATE – – – 41
CHAPTER FIVE
5.0 SUMMARY CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION – 45
5.1 SUMMARY – – – – – – – – 45
5.2 RECOMMENDATION – – – – – – 46
5.3 CONCLUSION – – – – – – – 48
DEFINITION OF TERMS – – – – – – – 50
REFERENCES – – – – – – – – – 52
LIST OF TABLES
TABLES PAGE NO.
TABLE 3.0.0 INFANT DEATH FROM 2011 TO 2017 – – 29
TABLE 3.0DATA ON INFANT MORTALITY FOR 2011 – – 14
TABLE 3.1 DATA ON INFANT MORTALITY FOR 2012 – – 15
TABLE 3.2 DATA ON INFANT MORTALITY FOR 2013 – – 16
TABLE 3.3 DATA ON INFANT MORTALITY FOR 2014 – – 17
TABLE 3.4 DATA ON INFANT MORTALITY FOR 2015 – – 18
TABLE 3.5 DATA ON INFANT MORTALITY FOR 2016 – – 19
TABLE 3.6 DATA ON INFANT MORTALITY FOR 2017 – – 20
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURES PAGE NO.
Fig 3.0 Scatter diagram showing infant death from 2011 to 2017 – 34
Fig 3.1 Pie chart showing infant death from 2011 to 2017 – – 35
Fig 3.2 A simple bar chart showing infant death from 2011 to 2017 – 36
Fig 3.3 A moving average plot showing infant death for various months
from 2011 t0 2017 – – – – – – – 37
Fig 3.4 A normal probability plot of infant death from 2011 to 2017 – 38
FIG 3.5 A time series plot of infant death from 2011 to 2017. – – 39
CHAPTER ONE
1.0 INTRODUCTION:
Reported in this chapter is information on levels trends of infant mortality rate. The information is relevant to the demographic assessment of both population and health policies and programs. The estimate of infant mortality rate may be used as inputs into population projection is forecasting.
Infant mortality can simply be described as the death of a child before it first birthday. Infant mortality is an important indicator of a country’s overall health condition. The statistics, the population and health programs and policies as well as contributes to the population projection of a country or a group of people.
In Nigeria, infant mortality has been of a great challenge. the different tiers of government namely, the federal government, state government and local government commit huge amount of resources in providing health facility and other material as well as in raising of health personnel.
Nigeria is the populous country in African continent. It has a population of 160 million people and per capita, GPD: $840. Nigeria is said to be a major contributor to infant rate globally, and also a major contributor to the estimates still births of 32.2 per 1000 deliveries in SSA, which has the highest globally. In 2005, Nigeria infant mortality rate was 98.8 deaths per 1000 live births (CIA word fact book). In “google” it is 72.5 deaths per 1000 live births (www.nigeria.com).
In this research work, we intend to find out the most common challenges that affect infant death and also to see if infant mortality increases as the year go by.
1.1 BACKGROUND OF STUDY:
Infant mortality has been a major issue across the world for many years, particularly Nigeria. Fribies (2004) study demonstrated that even in the 2000s that infant mortality rate in Nigeria remained the highest in the world at 56 deaths per 1000 live births in comparison to the rest of Africa.
Infant mortality is an important factor that determines the size of human population at any point in time. The effect of mortality cannot be over emphasized because it helps to determine the composition by age and sex of the population.
Nigeria forces many challenges with regard to increase in infant mortality within the country. Thisincludes economics insecurity. Deteriorate health service and devasting effects of the HIV pendemic within the country (Sandres and Davies, 1998. Griester et al 2001). Nigeria economic has suffer a major blow in the past years. The economic problem experienced can be attributed to various factors. (Clemens and Moss, 2005).Economic has a major impact on infant mortality as it affects all sectors of a country, including the health and employment sectors, which are directly associated with infant health outcome (Clemens and Moss, 2005).
Infantmortality is an issue that cannot be isolated to one determinant; there is various cause of increase in infant mortality such as;
1. Malaria
2. HIV
3. Poverty
4. Ignorance
5. Carelessness
6. Air Pollution
7. Non-accessibility health facilities
8. Inadequate health facilities
9. Polio
10. Complication, etc.
Most of these causes of infant mortality are preventable with right information, adequate accessible medical interval.
1.2 PURPOSE OF STUDY:
This research work will be of great purpose in providing us with necessary information on the trend of infant mortality in university of Port Harcourt teaching hospital and rivers state. Also, it will device a means of predicting future levels of infant death and it will also act as an aid in both health administrations in our society and researches. Furthermore, forecasting future levels of infant death in our society will enable health administrators to be equipped to make adequate plans aimed at tackling future levels of infant deaths. An accurate indicator of health status providing information concerning programs about pregnancy education and counseling technological advances.
1.3 STATEMENT OF PROBLEM:
Despite all the efforts made by various Government andNon Governmental Organization (NGOs).The world health organization (WHO).Nigeria red cross society (NRCS) and other philanthropist organization in Nigeria to control the level of infant mortality.
The researcher was very much worried and concerned about the alarming rate at which infant was dying in rivers state in particular and Nigeria in general and this made me to undertake the study with a view of finding out the causes of high infant death and how to prevent it.
1.4 SOURCE OF DATA:
A secondary data will be used for the study. a complete list of all the Registration of infant death will be collected from university of Port Harcourt teaching hospital from 2011 to 2017. The list was made up of infant death arranged according to the months of the death. For the purpose of this work the data will be re-arrange to months of death and the number of death in each month was calculated and arranged for the period under study.
1.5 SIGNIFICANCE OF STUDY:
This research of this study is significant for many reasons. it provides information on the factors responsible for high infant mortality rate in Nigeria. The data collected will be used to the expectant mothers. it will also provide both government and private sectors information on how approach this causes of infant death. Through this work, hospital management can forecast and prevent the causes of infant death.
1.6 SCOPE OF THE STUDY:
The survey covers all registered death of infant at the university of port Harcourt teaching hospital (UPTH) between 2011-2107 and these was the male and female death registration. The statistical technique used in this study is test for mortality, moving average. Why we want to use this statistical analysis is to know the occurrence that will be in time to come. This research was carried out successfully and carefully not without some constraint which includes the following:
a. Transportation
b. Finance
c. Time
d. Access to secondary data.
1.7 LIMITATION OF STUDY
The most limiting factor encountered in the course of carrying out this research work was lack of fund. Also, the time duration required for the completion was too short and the data required were voluminous which will take time to compile and analyze.
Collecting of data was a difficult task due to the fact that some materials were not available or not within reach at the time of the research.
1.8 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
The aim and objectives of this research work are as follows:
1. To make recommendation on the solution to reduce infant mortality.
2. To list out the major causes of infant mortality.
3. To estimate and isolate time component existing in the data on infant death.
4. Evaluate the data.
5. Construct and evaluate the mathematical made forecasting infant death base on the results recommendation that were made.
1.9 AIMS OF THE STUDY
The aim of the study is to know the major cause of infant death. Predict future occurrences of infant mortality and make recommendations on how reduce infant mortality.
1.2.1 TEST OF NORMALITY
H0: The residuals on x variables are not normally distribution.
H1: The residuals are normally distribution.
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