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ABSTRACT
The research carefully examined the port Harcourt city growth model simulation. The data used for the simulation were collected from the ministry of land and housing and the main program used for the simulation was matlab which has the feature that allow users to create the data generating process and eventually visualize the results using 2-D graphics. The simulation was done on a user- defined objects in matlab called point s, which contain the information about the unit square, city positions and their population at t. Base on the model, the probability that a new city is found with population one (1) is express as
1 where u contain in S (i, t),
(1+I (u,t))
Therefore, increase in the population by one (1) and I (u,t) is maximum of [s (i,t) for all i] on the bases of the simulation, the parameter a= 0.2, b= 0.9 and c=1 imply that, the city exhibit a balance growth and when a>1 and b<2a, the city has majority of the influence.
It is on this bases that the model is categorized in to balance, unbalance and critical categories depending on the parameter a, b and c. therefore the research recommended that, the city planners should take absolute care in planning the city.
Base on the limited number of simulation runs, it is discovered that, the Port Harcourt city growth is 15% and by 2025, the city will be congested like Lagos and people will find it very difficult in passing with their vehicles to their usual activities.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title page – – – – – – – – – – – i
Declaration – – – – – – – – – ii
Certification – – – – – – – – – – iii
Dedication – – – – – – – – – iv
Acknowledgement – – – – – – – – – v
Abstract – – – — – – – – – vi
Chapter one – – – – – – – – – 1
1.1 Introduction – – — – – – – – 1
1.2 statement of the problem – – – – – 2
1.3 Aims of the study – — – – – – – 2
1.4 Objective of the study – — – – – – 3
1.5 Significance of the Study – – – – – – 3
1.6 scope and Limitation of the Study – – – – – 4
1.7 Definition of Terms – – – – – – – 5
CHAPTER TWO – – – – – – – 7
LITERATURE REVIEW – – – – – – – – 7
CHAPTER THREE – – – – – – – – 13
3.1 Methodology – – – – – – – – 13
3.2 Statistical Modeling – – – – – – – – 16
3.3 Simulation Method – – – – – – – – 18
3.4 Simulation/ Analysis – – – – – – – 22
CHAPTER FOUR: RESULT – – – – – – – 25
SUMMARY RECOMMENDATION AND CONCLUSION – – – 26
5.1 Summary – – – – – – – – 26
5.2 Recommendation – – – – – – – 26
5.3 Conclusion – – – — – – – – – 27
CHAPTER ONE
1.1 INTRODUCTION
Urbanization is a process that many countries go through to be a developed country. The process is defined as the formation and growth of cities. Currently, more than haft of the world’s population lives in urban areas, and it is expected 70% will live in urban area by 2050 (United Nations, 2007). City sprawl, a consequence of socioeconomic development under certain circumstances has increasingly become a major issue facing many metropolitan areas, although a general consenus regarding definition and impact of city sprawl has not been achieved (Johnson, 2007).
Therefore, this research work is to develop a mathematical model which will be use to analyze the growth or sprawl of city (port Harcourt) and to compare the change on a land scape.
1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
City development usually happens at the expense of prime agricultural land with the destruction of national land scape and public open spaces, which has an increasing impact on the global environmental change port Harcourt city is selected for detail study.
Port Harcourt city is rapid growing due to immigrate of people from rural area to the city, these immigrate lead to the following problem:
- Greater poverty
- Concentrated energy use leads to greater air pollution with significant impact on human health.
- Large volumes of uncollected waste create multiple health hazards etc.
1.3 AIMS OF THE STUDY
The aims of the research study is as follows:
- To developed a mathematical model to analyze the growth of port Harcourt city.
- To compare the change of land scape
1.4 OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
The study have the following objective:
- To investigate part Harcourt city growth
- To analysis environmental impact of port Harcourt city growth in the past and the future.
1.5 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
For a research work to have been there is no doubt that, it must have beneficiaries, these who will use this work will be great use and importance and that it will be benefits to researchers.
- To those writing project, it will give them detailed information on what happen in the city of part Harcourt.
- This project will be of beneficial to city planners to plan for a conducive city for people to leave.
- It will also, be significance to those who will make a research on topics related to this project.
- Government will also find this work very useful as it demonstrate the change of land scape.
1.6 SCOPE AND LIMITATION OF THE STUDY
This research was carried out with reference to port Harcourt city LGA. The limited factors encountered in the course of carrying out this research work were:
- LACK OF FINANCE: During the time of this research work there was no enough fund to use in sourcing for information on the internet and to travel to their sources centre to get information.
- LACK OF MATERIALS ON THIS RESEARCH TOPIC: During the time this research was carried out there was no enough materials related to this topic, therefore making references is very difficult.
- INADEQUATE TIME FRAME: Time was not mush on my side during this research work.
1.7 DEFINITION OF TERMS
- Simulation: Simulation is something which simulates a system or environment in order to predict actual behaviour of the system.
- Simulation Model: Simulation model is a model which represents a system using number and symbols that can be readily manipulated.
- City Growth: This is the process whereby city is grow throughout its metropolis.
- Port Harcourt City: This is the capital and largest city of Rivers State, Nigeria which lies along the Bonny River and it is located in the Niger Delta region of the country (Nigeria).
- Cellular Automata (CA): This is a discrete model studied in computability theory, mathematics, physics, complexity sciences theoretical biology and micro structure modeling.
- Geographical Information System (GIS): This is a system designed to capture, store, manipulate, analyze and manage spatial or geographic data.
- Statistical Modeling: Is a class of mathematical model, which embodies a set of assumptions concerning the generation of some sample data, and similar data from a large population.
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