(A CASE STUDY OF PORT HARCOURT METROPOLIS FROM 2000 – 2014)
Complete Material Cost #3,000
This research work is titled; Statistical Analysis of Criminal Offences recorded in Rivers State, with particular reference to Port Harcourt metropolis. This study is to determine if crime types depends on age, and to obtain the trend values and forecasts for the year 2020. Analytical tools made use of include: chi-square test and Time Series Analysis. From the results, it was observed that the different crime types do not depend on age. A decrease in the trend values was also observed, which shows a reduction in the rate of crimes, meaning that all the crimes types under study were combated, checked and reduced to the barest minimum according to the data from the Police record. Based on the findings of this study, it is recommended that job creation and assurance of youth employment should be the major task of government.
This project work on violent crimes in Port Harcourt city rivers state Nigeria is essential due to the accelerated rate of crimes recorded within the country over the years.
Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa, situated on the gulf of Guinea in West Africa. According to history Nigeria attended independence on October 1, 1960 from Britain hence, becoming a member of the common wealth of nation, joining United Nation (UN).
Violent crimes have constituted a monster in Nigeria, hindering and restricting the free movement of properties and commodities within and outside the country. Directly or indirectly, this has hampered economic development in the country. This trend has impacted negatively on both the economics and social wellbeing of the citizens resulting in a low per capita income of the country.
In the same vein, according to the adage “An hungry man is an angry man”, the socio-economic factor of crime poverty has been seen to constitute a high rate of crime in the country. Hence, acute and urgent attention is needed for a rapid alleviation of poverty and crime rate in our country Nigeria.
Consequently, from findings across the nation, an increasing rate of crimes and death, ranging from Rapes, Murder, Arm Robbery, Extrajudicial killings, Ritual killings, Political Assassination and other crimes within the nation have been recorded in different geographical regions of the country.
Prominent visitors to the country have encountered various situations of crime such as Kidnapping, Extortion, Burglary, Carjacking, Assault, Armed Muggings and some other situations involving violent crimes.
However, violent crime committed by criminals either as an individual or a gang is a problem. Some criminals put on police uniform and or military uniform serving as a ploy to deceive the victims. In urban area such as Lagos, Abuja, and other larger cities of which Rivers State is included, violent crime is a problem. Armed robbers and assassins access compounds that are well fenced. For instance, on the 5th of September, 2005 hired assassins attempted to assassinate my parents in our compound but to no avail.
There are many cases of violent crimes in Nigeria, but this project work is looking at the most common violent crime such as Arm Robbery, Rape, Murder, Assault, Stealing, House Breaking, Grievous Bodily Harm, Burglary, Store Breaking and Arson.
Lastly, as the result of the above mentioned consequences, there is need for this investigation of reported cases of violent crime in Nigeria using a case study of violent crimes of Rivers State from 2000 – 2014.
1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
The use of statistical approach to any research exercise requires employing statistical method and tool on the data concerned to achieve its objectives. This project work is not an exception. The objective stated in section 1.3 below can only be achieved by the use of the appropriate statistical tool. With this fact, this project work leans greatly in the theory of chi-square (X2). This theory gives a measure of the discrepancy existing between the observed and expected frequencies. The larger the X2 value, the greater the discrepancy between the observed and expected frequencies. If X2 = 0, the observed and expected frequencies are the same (agree exactly). In other words, no discrepancy between the observed and expected frequencies.
It is given as;
X2 = E (0i – ei)2
0i = the observed frequency
ei = the expected frequency
k = the number of categories (classes)
The degree of freedom v = k-1 but if the expected frequencies can be computed only by estimating m, the degree of freedom is v = k-1-m
Where m is the number of parameters to be estimated; the chi-square test statistic is used for a member of statistical test, but this project work focuses on test of independence.
In testing for independence, two variables are involved and the number of rows (r) and columns (c) would depend on the number of groups into which two variable are categorized. The table is called r x c contingency table. The intersection of rows and columns in the table form a total of r x c cells, which contain the observed frequencies Murray, R. (2008).
Finally, time series analysis will be employed. Time series is a set of observations on a variable measured at successive points in time or successive period of time. That is, time series forecasting models are based on assumption that past history is an indication of future expectation. It is a data generated in chronological order for the purpose of monitoring the performance of an aspect of the economy such as production and sales figures, stock levels, rainfall data and others.
There are four components of time series, they are: Trend component, Seasonal, Cyclical and Irregular variation Iwuagwu, E. (2004).
For the purpose of this project work, the time series analysis used will be limited to estimation of the trend and forecasting for the next year only. This implies that the further application of time series will not be discoursed in this project work.
1.2 STATEMENT OF PROBLEM
Cases of violent crime such as Armed Robber, Murder, Kidnapping, Raping, Grievous Bodily Harm, Burglary, Stealing, House Breaking, Store Breaking and Arson are frequently reported over the radio, on the television, on internets, in newspapers, on facebook and other social networks.
Since the Nigeria Civil War (Biafran War) that took place for about 2 years and 6 months (6 July 1967 – 15 January 1970), civil unrest keeps arising in some parts of the country. For instance, in 2005 there was an occurrence of unrest between the youths in ikwere local government of Rivers State precisely. As a product of this unrest, lives were claimed, houses were demolished, people were injured and futures were truncated.
However, in order to reduce the rate of violent crime to the nearest minimum, government has taken strategic measures to reduce crime. Much income has been allocated for the reduction of violent crime in the country.
Other factors of violent crime such as low standard of living, unemployment, friends, poor education, poverty, religious crisis and others are still in sight. Religious crisis is very devastating in the country causing the brake down of economic developments in the country. Many lives both Christians and Muslims members have lost their family members because of the Boko Haram sect. in the Northern part of the country. houses are demolished, both the social and economic stability of the country are repeatedly threatened by the Sharia Law (Islamic law) in the Northern part of the country. This has hampered the social development of the country. Since the inception of democratic rule and the end of military regime in 1999, Nigeria has witnessed various religious crises across the country.
From the ongoing, the following questions arise:
- What are the social activities in Nigeria that have given rise to violent crimes by youth?
- Are the politicians contributing to the increment of violent crime in Nigeria?
- What are the responses by civil society and government?
- What are the lessons derived from the experience of violent crime exhibited by youths in the country?
1.3 AIMS AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
The main aim of this project work is to carryout statistical analysis of reported cases of violent crimes in Port Harcourt. Using violent crimes in Rivers State as the case study based on available records from the year 2000 – 2014.
The objectives are:
- To obtain the trend values and forecast for the year 2007 – 2012.
- To determine if crime types depend on age.
- To obtain graph for the actual and estimated cases of violent crime from 2000 – 2014.
1.4 STATEMENT OF HYPOTHESIS
With the objective of this project work, the hypothesis is tested to discover accuracy that will be obtained from the result.
Ho: Crime types depend on age.
H1: Crime types does not depend on age.
1.5 COPE AND LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
The scope of this project work statistical analysis of reported cases of violent crimes in Port Harcourt. It covers cases in Rivers State that have been reported at the State Police Headquarters between 2000 – 2014. Therefore, the researcher is limited to only the State Police Headquarters and does not include cases reported at other Police Stations of rivers state. The following limitations were encountered in the research study.
Financial constraint- Insufficient fund tends to impede the efficiency of the researcher in sourcing for the relevant materials, literature or information and in the process of data collection.
Time constraint- The researcher will simultaneously engage in this study with other academic work. This consequently will cut down on the time devoted for the research work.
1.7 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
This project work is significant because:
- It will help to find ways and methods of controlling the dangers of crimes. Therefore, through this project work, suggested ways and methods of reducing factors of crimes will be stated and discussed.
- It will provide information and serve as a research work for other researchers in the same field of study.
1.8 DEFINITION OF TERMS
Crime: A crime is an illegal action or activity for which a person can be punished by law, example robber. It also refers to as a violation of law.
Armed Robbery: Forcefully taking of one’s property through the use of weapon or arms.
Rape: This is defined as the crime of forcing someone to have sex, usually by violence or threats.
Murder: Murder is the deliberate and illegal killing of a person.
Assault: An assault is a physical attack on someone.
Grievous Bodily Harm: Is defined as great or severe hurts or injury done on a person(s) intentionally.
Burglary: Is a crime that involved illegal entry into a building for the purposes of committing an offense.
Arson: Is the crime of intentionally and maliciously setting fire to buildings, vehicles or other property with the intent to cause damage.